Here’s a bold statement: the oil market might not be drowning in excess supply next year, despite what some forecasts suggest. But here’s where it gets controversial—top energy executives from Europe are challenging these predictions, arguing that growing demand and insufficient investment in production could prevent a glut. Let’s dive into why this matters and what it means for the future of energy.
At the recent ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi confidently stated, ‘I don’t think we can have an excess of supply in 2026.’ His sentiment was echoed by other industry leaders, including BP CEO Murray Auchincloss and TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne. And this is the part most people miss—while China’s oil demand growth has slowed, India is emerging as a new powerhouse, driving global consumption higher.
Descalzi pointed out a critical issue: over the past 12 years, the industry has invested only half of what’s needed to boost production. This underinvestment, combined with rising demand, could create a tight market rather than a surplus. TotalEnergies’ Pouyanne added that while OPEC is scaling back some capacity, this could lead to lower prices temporarily, discouraging further investment and ultimately causing prices to spike again. It’s a delicate balance that raises questions about the market’s stability.
BP’s Auchincloss highlighted another key factor: non-OPEC+ supply growth is expected to peak by April 2026, after which production could flatten or decline. He emphasized the need for expansion in regions like Abu Dhabi, Iraq, and Libya to meet growing demand. Meanwhile, OPEC predicts a relatively balanced market next year, contrasting sharply with the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a 4 million barrels per day surplus. Is the IEA overestimating supply, or are energy executives downplaying the risks?
This debate isn’t just about numbers—it’s about the future of energy security and pricing. If executives are right, we could see tighter markets and higher prices. But if the IEA’s forecast holds, a surplus could lead to lower prices, at least in the short term. What do you think? Are we headed for a supply glut, or is the market more fragile than it seems? Share your thoughts in the comments—this is one discussion you won’t want to miss!
