The Australian Open draw is a complex affair, with many variables that can impact a player's path to the semi-finals. For Alex de Minaur, the world No.6 Aussie, his chances of a semi-final breakthrough depend on a combination of factors, including the draw and his own form. But here's where it gets controversial: while de Minaur has never lost to a player ranked lower than him at the Australian Open, his luck has been less than favorable in the second week of the tournament. He has consistently drawn poorly, including facing nemesis Jannik Sinner in three of the last four years. Last year, de Minaur made the quarter-finals for the first time, but was convincingly beaten by Sinner. It could be argued that he received the hardest possible draw for the third straight year, after copping the highest possible seed in his section in 2024 and facing Novak Djokovic on route to a 10th title in 2023. De Minaur's Australian Open losses since breaking into the ATP top 50 include facing No.1 Jannik Sinner in the quarter-finals in 2025, No.5 Andrey Rublev in the fourth round in 2024, and No.4 Novak Djokovic in the fourth round in 2023. Seeded sixth, de Minaur will face one of the top four seeds in the quarter-finals, and he will be desperately hoping it’s world No.3 Alex Zverev. The Aussie is 3-8 all-time against Zverev, but this is a fair improvement on his career record of 1-21 against the alternatives of Sinner, Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz. While de Minaur could pray for the top seed in his path to lose before the quarter-finals, it’s much more likely he’ll need to beat them himself. And he would have a shot at making a maiden grand slam semi-final should he draw Zverev. This is not to say de Minaur cannot beat the big dogs - or that he cannot win the tournament. But it would take something special, unless he gets a little help. The Australian Open draw will be conducted from 2:30pm AEDT. Follow it live in our blog below, or watch it live at Melbourne Park, or on the Australian Open’s YouTube or Facebook pages. The draw ceremony begins with the qualifiers, wildcards, and non-seeded main draw entrants being randomly placed throughout the draw, filling all spots which will not feature seeds. The No.1 and No.2 seeds are placed on opposite sides of the draw, in the top left and bottom right of the bracket respectively. The No.3 and No.4 seeds are randomly drawn into the other corners, to face the No.1 and/or No.2 in the semi-finals. Then the No.5-8 seeds are placed, one in each quarter, to face a No.1-4 seed in the quarter-finals. Then the No.9-12 seeds are placed, one in each section which features a No.5-8 seed, to face them in the fourth round. Then the No.13-16 seeds are placed, one in each section which features a No.1-4 seed, to face them in the fourth round. Then the No.17-24 seeds are placed, one in each mini-section which features a No.9-16 seed, to face them in the third round. Finally, the No.25-32 seeds are placed, one in each mini-section which features a No.1-8 seed, to face them in the third round. For Maya Joint, Australia’s top-ranked woman, this will be her first time being seeded at a grand slam. Her ranking points from two 250-level tournament wins in Rabat and Eastbourne last year, plus a semi-final run in Seoul, will give her the best opportunity possible to reach a career-best grand slam third round. She has made the second round of the US Open twice, but that’s it thus far. Joint drew a seed in the first round of two slams last year (Australian Open and Wimbledon), contributing to her early exits. This time, she can’t face another seed until the third round. If she gets there, it’ll likely be a mighty task against someone ranked in the top eight. Joint beat four women ranked inside the top 20 last year, but none higher than 12th (Clara Tauson in Seoul). It would be valuable experience on a big stage for the 19-year-old. The dangerous floaters in the Australian Open draw include Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz, who reached as high as world No.6 in 2024 but is now ranked well outside the top 50. After being knocked out in the first round of the 2025 French Open, he played just one more match before requiring knee surgery. Another oft-injured former world No.6, Italy’s Matteo Berrettini, cannot be counted out on hard courts having made the 2022 semi-finals here. Most players inside the top 50 pose some danger to the seeds, but we’ll particularly note Belgium’s Zizou Bergs and Argentina’s Sebastian Baez, who both impressed at the United Cup.
